Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 23 2023 20:48:25

AWUS01 KWNH 232048
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-240246-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0966
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Areas affected...western New Mexico, portions of Arizona and
southern Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232046Z - 240246Z

Summary...Areas of slow-moving thunderstorms are producing
localized 1+ inch/hr rain rates.  A continued expansion of
convective coverage should result in additional flash flood
potential through sunset.

Discussion...Strong solar insolation was allowing for deepening
convective towers across most of the discussion area per visible
satellite imagery.  Convective coverage is relatively sparse for
the time being, although continued solar insolation and
destabilization (resulting in around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE) was
resulting in expanding areas of coverage especially over the past
half hour.  The storms were in an environment characterized by
modest southeasterly steering flow aloft and PW values ranging
from near 0.8-1 inch from far western New Mexico/northeastern
Arizona to around 1-1.4 inches from the Mogollon Rim northwestward
into southern Utah.  The environment was also contributing to slow
storm motions (5-10 knots) and spots of rain rates exceeding 1
inch/hr at times.

The ongoing scenario should result in localized/spotty areas of
flash flooding as storms migrate slowly across the discussion
area.  The flash flood risk should be more pronounced where the
heavier rain rates can materialize over low-lying and/or sensitive
spots (i.e., slot canyons) through sunset.  Most of the activity
should be diurnally driven, although a non-zero risk of heavy
rainfall will persist in NM/eastern AZ portions of the MPD where
the remnants of Harold are expected to traverse through the
overnight hours.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-7jqsE-Sxkkix3h5AuzxAfHbRanaj2RZhUm1Q57r7PqXJ2q3-FKlBUxKZOH7Gwd0lUA4=
AXNyj3L1lC3a8UMB_zqkOwY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39841179 39751050 38771032 37521068 35990923=20
            35410767 34550734 33040773 33011140 34801400=20
            37521390 39431355=20

=3D =3D =3D
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