Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 23 2023 08:34:22

ACUS48 KWNS 230834
SWOD48
SPC AC 230832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest medium-range model output, it is a bit more
unclear whether modestly amplified large-scale mid-level troughing
will be maintained east of the Mississippi Valley beyond this coming
weekend.  However, it may still be more probable that weak mid-level
troughing lingers through the early to middle portion of next week,
downstream of an initially amplified regime across the eastern
Pacific into the Rockies, and perhaps develops as far south as the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico, as stronger cyclonic mid-level flow
retreats to higher latitudes.

It does appear that a significant perturbation will emerge from
large-scale mid-level troughing, initially near and offshore of the
Pacific coast, and accelerate northeastward inland across the
northern U.S. Pacific coast through the southern Canadian/northern
U.S. Rockies by late next Wednesday.  While this may be accompanied
by cyclogenesis within deepening surface troughing across the
Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. Great Plains, appreciable
boundary-layer moistening currently appears unlikely, with
seasonably moist conditions becoming confined south of a cold front
reaching the south Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

Otherwise, in advance of lingering mid-level troughing offshore of
the Pacific coast, boundary-layer moistening off the Gulf of
California may lead to increasing potential instability across the
lower Colorado Valley and adjacent Southwestern deserts by the
middle of next week.  However, appreciable severe weather potential,
if any, will likely be influenced by sub-synoptic features with very
low predictability at this extended time frame.

...Kerr.. 08/23/2023

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