Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 22 2023 15:03:00 AWUS01 KWNH 221502 FFGMPD TXZ000-222055- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0961...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1102 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Corrected for added more info at the end of the discussion Areas affected...South Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 221455Z - 222055Z Summary...A localized flash flood threat will continue across South Texas in association with Tropical Storm Harold. Intense rainfall rates over 1 inch in 15 minutes will be possible with additional rainfall of 3-6 inches possible through 21Z. Discussion...The center of Tropical Storm Harold has reformed north of earlier positions as referenced in the recent 14Z update from NHC and was located about 65 miles southeast of Corpus Christi. Local radar imagery from KCRP indicated a fairly solid axis of heavy rain to the immediate west and north of Harold's center with a steady movement off toward the WNW between 15-20 kt, co-located with a burst of colder cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery. Precipitable water values from the 12Z RAOBs at CRP and BRO measured 2.5 to 2.6 inches along with wet bulb zero heights near 16 kft, highly supportive of efficient rainfall generation. Despite the relatively quick motion of the system, earlier reports of rainfall to the north and south of Corpus Christi (around 12Z) showed 0.6 to 1.2 inches of rain in 15 minutes, although the limited duration of heavy rain has capped rainfall totals to less than 2 inches generally for the Corpus Christi metro area. MRMS-derived totals of 2-3 inches were observed to the south, from Padre Island to the Texas mainland. Easterly 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt (KCRP VAD wind) across the lower Texas coast are expected to translate westward with Harold and support one potential region for high rainfall with areas of training. More organized rainfall near the center of Harold will support an additional region for heavy rainfall with rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches in an hour or less. Dry air wrapping into the system from the south and east is expected to limit heavy rainfall potential for far southern Texas, but the high precipitable water environment cannot completely rule out the possibility of heavy rain developing with daytime heating. A lack of appreciable rainfall over the past 2-4 weeks for southern Texas should place the greatest risk of flash flooding over urban areas and other locations of poor drainage. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5jjjNIQKh6ybzK7AvUNM82i_U6ILqgHvjz4lI7fabohdI-2QfF5I3-jRGEFXYrcUNhGx= XVqPfncmFaxeL-Ifbrd67Fc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 28919766 28919650 28559598 28099657 27729690=20 27369718 26999719 26419712 25959701 25729711=20 25659741 26209902 26929989 28110042 28619961=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .