Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 22 2023 09:01:22

AWUS01 KWNH 220901
FFGMPD
TXZ000-221500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0960
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220900Z - 221500Z

Summary...Tropical Storm Harold to make landfall by midday. Rain
bands will produce 1-3"/hr rainfall rates with localized totals of
3-6" expected through mid-morning. Isolated to scattered flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...Tropical Storm Harold is approaching landfall along
the South Texas coast this morning, moving west-northwest at 15
kts (as of the 09z advisory). Rain bands are already making their
way onshore, and MRMS is currently estimating peak localized
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr. These rates are generally expected to
persist well through landfall, though rates may also occasionally
reach the 2-3"/hr range (with frictional convergence locally
strengthening updrafts). The highest localized totals (expected to
be 3-6" through 15z) will mainly occur along and near the
coastline (from Brownsville north to Corpus Christi) in
association with the core of tropical moisture (PWATs of 2.6"+,
above the max moving average per BRO/CRP sounding climatology) and
most persistent low-level easterly flow and associated strong
moisture transport. The good news is that the bulk of this
rainfall will be beneficial for the drought-stricken region, but
too much rainfall too fast could lead to isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding (particularly within poor drainage
metropolitan areas). The 00z HREF indicates 40-km neighborhood
probabilities for 5" exceedance of 15-25% (through 15z), which
corresponds to a 10-20% probability of exceedance for associated
Flash Flood Guidance.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-aTjEDVquYsaf9k_9V3EgNIXb_DF_VEZYj4sc_o4jcSjplfWY2ztqOB7FXMrYyGB1Pzy=
aCE86tWdGeDWz6osFWdrqQk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   28329683 27429706 26489699 25799700 25599793=20
            25919861 26919908 27739880 28329800=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.