Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 22 2023 08:41:44

ACUS48 KWNS 220841
SWOD48
SPC AC 220840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A remnant short wave impulse, digging east-southeast of the central
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity at the outset of the period, is
forecast to contribute to an amplifying mid-level trough to the
south of the main belt of westerlies, along the northern through
middle Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend.  It is possible that
the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air could continue
to contribute to large CAPE in advance/on the southern periphery of
this feature, across parts of the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic on
Friday into Saturday.  However, it remains unclear from latest model
output whether this will be preceded at the surface by a southward
advancing cold front and/or outflow from prior convection, and the
extent of any associated convective potential remains at least
somewhat uncertain.

Thereafter, into the early to middle portion of next week, severe
weather potential seems limited. It appears that the westerlies will
consolidate to the north of the central and eastern Canadian/U.S.
border, while remaining split upstream.  In the southern branch,
amplified mid-level ridging is expected to generally prevail across
much of the Great Basin and Rockies, into parts of the Great Plains,
before large-scale mid-level troughing, initially offshore of the
Pacific Coast, slowly begins to shift inland late in the period.

...Kerr.. 08/22/2023

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