Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 22 2023 01:01:13

ACUS01 KWNS 220101
SWODY1
SPC AC 220059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST...AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across central and
southern Arizona, and the coastal plain of South Texas as well as
northern Minnesota/Wisconsin late tonight.

....Discussion...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible in a few areas
beginning with central and southern Arizona mainly this evening.
Several thunderstorm clusters will continue across the southern
Arizona northward to the Mogollon Rim where a reservoir of rich
moisture and moderate buoyancy is located.  The 00z Tucson raob
exhibited 1900 J/kg MLCAPE with around 30-kt effective shear.  Some
storm-scale organization will continue into the evening with a risk
for isolated large hail and severe gusts.

Later tonight, a terminus of a strengthening LLJ will focus over the
Upper Midwest.  Elevated widely scattered thunderstorms will
probably develop with the stronger cores capable of a threat for
large hail.  Concurrently during the overnight, strengthening
low-level wind profiles along the lower and middle TX coasts will
become marginally favorable for transient supercell rotation and a
developing low risk for a tornado.

...Smith.. 08/22/2023

$$

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