Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2020
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 21 2023 19:48:11

ACUS11 KWNS 211948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211947=20
AZZ000-212215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2020
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Areas affected...Southwest/West-Central AZ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211947Z - 212215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts may develop across
south-central and southwest Arizona this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows some deepening
cumulus across southwest/west-central AZ, between more widespread
cumulus over the higher terrain near the AZ/NM border and a more
persistent north/south oriented cloud band across central AZ.=20
This persistent cloudiness has tempered heating and destabilization
across central AZ thus far, but partly cloudy skies have allow
modest destabilization across south-central/southwest AZ. Further
destabilization is anticipated throughout the afternoon, and
moisture convergence along this differential heating zone is
expected to result in convective initiation. Strong low to mid-level
flow extends throughout this region as well, with recent
mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear from 35 to 45 kt.  As
such, any storms that area able to deepen and persist could become
organized/supercellular with the potential to produce damaging
gusts. Overall coverage of strong to severe storms appears it will
remain isolated, likely precluding the need for a watch.

...Mosier/Grams.. 08/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6TQQfu7AhQAFMEE4d6cv29g_ibdLW3ugzCwhoyunAJcJ7bM5gvchrkloxDSO5tD62M4XdKdYw=
QzCT2uBz29w_adbfYA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31411103 32831163 34271174 34881159 35241114 35111033
            34540989 33500953 32700927 32180920 31470925 31340973
            31411103=20


=3D =3D =3D
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