Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 21 2023 08:35:39

ACUS48 KWNS 210835
SWOD48
SPC AC 210833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance still indicates that mid-level ridging over
the interior U.S. will become less prominent during this period, and
confined to the Rockies and adjacent portions of the Intermountain
West and Great Plains, with highest heights becoming centered near
the Four Corners by early next week.  As this occurs, mid-level
troughing may consolidate to its west, near and inland of the
Pacific coast, while broad weak downstream troughing develops near
and east of the Mississippi Valley.

There does appear to be considerable spread concerning short wave
developments in the East.  However, moderate to strong potential
instability may initially be present near and southeast of the lower
Great Lakes region into portions of the Allegheny Plateau, and
perhaps Mid Atlantic, when forcing for ascent downstream of one
digging impulse could support organized convective development this
coming Thursday into Friday.  With the strength of the wind fields
and vertical shear more uncertain, and probably on the modest to
weak side, severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at
less than 15 percent.  However, it is possible that this could
change in later outlooks for this period.

...Kerr.. 08/21/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.