Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 21 2023 00:51:06

ACUS01 KWNS 210051
SWODY1
SPC AC 210049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA...AND SOUTHWEST UTAH...

....SUMMARY...
A tornado is possible this evening in portions of the lower Colorado
River Valley and Mojave Desert through around dusk.

....Synopsis...
Tropical Cyclone Hilary continues moving northward over southern CA
with the center of the circulation forecast to move into central NV
by early Monday morning (per National Hurricane Center forecasts).
The 00z observed raobs over the Desert Southwest show very moist
profiles and weak buoyancy.  The largest buoyancy/shear is located
over portions of southeast CA into northwest AZ and southern
NV/southwest UT this evening.  The VEF (Las Vegas) raob showed an
enlarged low-level hodograph and it likely sampled the northern
periphery of greatest buoyancy.  It is in the area centered over
southern NV where the greatest threat for a tornado will likely
exist this evening before this threat diminishes by mid evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms on the eastern periphery of the
larger-scale circulation over eastern into northern AZ may also pose
a localized wind hazard into the early evening.

Elsewhere, early evening water-vapor imagery shows a large mid-level
anticyclone centered over KS/MO.  Severe thunderstorms are not
expected outside of the Desert Southwest.

...Smith.. 08/21/2023

$$

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