Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2017
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 20 2023 18:10:05

ACUS11 KWNS 201809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201809=20
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-202015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Areas affected...Southeast CA...Southwest AZ...extreme southern NV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 201809Z - 202015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple tornadoes are possible this afternoon as T.C.
Hilary moves north-northwestward. Tornado Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Hilary is quickly moving
north-northwestward near the Baja California coast late this
morning. While Hilary will continue to weaken through the day,
strong low/midlevel flow associated with the broader circulation has
already spread into parts of southern CA/AZ, and will move into a
larger portion of southeast CA into western AZ with time. 0-1 km SRH
of 200-300 m2/s2 (as noted on recent VWPs from KYUX and also from
objective mesoanalyses) will be supportive of low-level rotation
with any deeper convection to the east/northeast of Hilary's track.=20

Uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of deep convection within
the favorable low-level shear regime. Convective banding may remain
somewhat muted in closer proximity to Hilary's center as the surface
circulation continues to decay, and widespread cloudiness will tend
to limit destabilization. The greatest relative threat may
materialize along and west of the lower CO River Valley, where
richer low-level moisture will be in place and somewhat greater
heating/destabilization is underway along the eastern periphery of
the strongest low-level flow/shear. One or more arcs of deeper
convection may evolve with time across this region, with embedded
transient supercells and a couple of tornadoes possible. Tornado
Watch issuance is possible, depending on short-term observational
trends regarding destabilization and convective evolution.

...Dean/Grams.. 08/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5lUDS3htypTKZy_nkJjAkU2y5Y1WS4mZLLS_m71olpC9hUBTV2I9RXIdEm670yyYdZLw-4YCV=
kaSDVdN2hP3Akuyphs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...

LAT...LON   32621629 33721664 34891669 35301623 35511564 35351458
            34231421 32791410 32171410 32361496 32621629=20


=3D =3D =3D
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