Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 20 2023 00:41:29

ACUS01 KWNS 200041
SWODY1
SPC AC 200039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of the San
Joaquin Valley this evening.

....Central California...
A mid-level anticyclone is currently located across the central U.S.
Along the western periphery of this system, mid-level flow is from
the south over much of the western U.S. At the surface, a
dual-centered low is analyzed over central and northern California,
where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. The low-level
moisture is contributing to weak instability, with the RAP showing
MLCAPE around 500 J/kg range over parts of the San Joaquin Valley.
The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Hanford shows
scattered thunderstorms across the southern parts of the San Joaquin
Valley. This convection will move north-northwestward across this
valley this evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear, evident on RAP forecast soundings, suggest that a
marginal wind-damage threat will be possible with the stronger
multicells. The threat should persist for a couple more hours.

...Broyles.. 08/20/2023

$$

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