Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2016
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 19 2023 20:19:58

ACUS11 KWNS 192019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192019=20
CAZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023

Areas affected...San Joaquin Valley into the western Mojave Desert

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192019Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated strong to severe gusts will be
possible later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Initially steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing
moisture in advance of Hurricane Hilary will result in widely
scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of
the San Joaquin Valley and western Mojave desert region. Recent
thunderstorm development has already been noted across northeast
Kern County, with storm coverage expected to increase over lower
elevation areas with time.=20

With low-level flow/shear expected to remain weak through the
afternoon, storms may quickly become outflow dominant. However,
increasing mid/upper-level flow (as noted on the KSOX and KEYX VWPs)
may support modestly organized and sustained convection, with one or
more outflow-driven clusters possible by late afternoon. Strong to
locally severe gusts will be possible as storms spread northward
through the afternoon into early evening across the San Joaquin
Valley.

...Dean/Grams.. 08/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6-94167xCBjDTq_gtUjbwF4Af4THyYUmN33moiugbwe13nQzoF_67ueH5CimDN3Q7ymBARWCp=
TxDW29YTxCeVdpt2JE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...

LAT...LON   36291776 35181694 34881717 34731770 34651820 35151930
            36312069 37072115 37732112 38072037 37501907 36291776=20


=3D =3D =3D
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