Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 19 2023 19:43:00 ACUS01 KWNS 191942 SWODY1 SPC AC 191941 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over the San Joaquin Valley and western Mojave Desert vicinity the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. ....20z Update -- San Joaquin Valley/Western Mojave Desert... The previous outlook remains unchanged with the 20z update. Convection will increase in coverage over the next 2-3 hours, and sporadic severe thunderstorm gusts are possible into early evening. For more details, see previous outlook below and any forthcoming MCDs. ...Leitman.. 08/19/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023/ ....San Joaquin Valley and western Mojave Desert... Hot temperatures will persist over the Central Valley this afternoon with abundant insolation underway northwest of the extensive cloud canopy downstream of Hurricane Hilary. Convective temperatures will be breached towards early afternoon over the higher terrain across parts of the Transverse Ranges and southern Sierra NV mountains. Isolated to eventually scattered thunderstorms will occur through the afternoon, spreading north-northwest amid south to southeast steering flow that notably strengthens with height in the upper portion of the buoyancy profile. Deeply mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles beneath the moderate storm motions should support a threat for sporadic severe wind gusts before waning during the early evening. ....West... Elsewhere in the West, very localized severe wind gusts will be possible with several areas of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Spatial coverage of the severe wind threat appears likely to remain below the 5 percent threshold needed for an areal delineation. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .