Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 19 2023 17:01:28

ACUS02 KWNS 191701
SWODY2
SPC AC 191659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...INTO FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH AND MUCH OF
ARIZONA...

....SUMMARY...
Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the weakening tropical
cyclone Hilary may become capable of producing severe thunderstorm
wind gusts and a tornado or two across parts of the lower Colorado
Valley into the Mojave Desert and Arizona Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night.

....Southwest States...

Current Hurricane Hilary is forecast to weaken as it tracks
northward from the northern Baja coast into southern CA and
eventually northern NV Sunday into early Monday (see National
Hurricane Center for more detailed track and tropical cyclone
impacts information). Severe thunderstorm hazards (damaging
thunderstorm gusts and tornado or two) may accompany this system
across portions of the Lower Colorado Valley/Mojave Desert and AZ
vicinity. This area will experience the favored (for TC tornado
potential) northeast quadrant of the system. Current forecast
guidance continues to show 850-700 mb southeasterly flow around
50-70 kt, and 0-1 km SRH greater than 300 m2/s2 amid modest
instability. This will support a risk for a tornado or two along
with damaging winds in supercell structures within convective bands
across the right quadrant of the system.

Some discrepancy in forecast high temperatures is noted in forecast
guidance across AZ, with the operational 09z and 15z RAP being an
outlier, indicating surface temperatures around 5-10 F lower than
NAM/ECMWF/GFS counterparts (including GFS/EC ensembles). If
temperatures do indeed reach the mid/upper 90s F across parts of the
lower deserts, a stronger baroclinic zone may reside across parts of
AZ. Deeper boundary-layer mixing will support downward transport of
higher momentum air (50-70 kt in the 850-700 mb layer). Given
current trends, severe potential may exist a little further east,
and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded a small
amount across parts of AZ.

...Leitman.. 08/19/2023

$$

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