Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 19 2023 08:29:24

ACUS48 KWNS 190829
SWOD48
SPC AC 190827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered over the central
Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley and encompassing much of the
nation to the east of the Rockies, may be maintained through the
middle of the coming week.  Thereafter, models indicate that it may
become at least a bit more suppressed, with its center retrograding
toward the Four Corners region through early next weekend.  It
appears that this may occur as a modest mid-level trough and
embedded low, initially crossing the Pacific Northwest, is forced
eastward around the periphery of the ridge.  Forcing and shear
associated with this perturbation might become marginally sufficient
to support organized strong thunderstorm development, given
sufficient destabilization, as it digs across and southeast of the
lower Great Lakes region late in work week.  However, given the
spread in the model output, and the extended time frame, the
potential for organized severe convection still appears best
characterized as low (or less than 15 percent severe probabilities)
at this time.

...Kerr.. 08/19/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.