Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 19 2023 05:49:28

ACUS01 KWNS 190549
SWODY1
SPC AC 190547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears limited across the U.S.
today.

....Discussion...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place over the central
U.S. today, with broad/surrounding anticyclonic flow to extend from
the Rockies to the Appalachians, and the Gulf of Mexico to the
Canadian border.

Flanking the ridge, a nearly stationary upper low is forecast to
remain just off the California coast, while a second low moves
slowly eastward across the St. Lawrence Valley/New England.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Hilary is forecast to continue moving northward
along the Baja California coast, with enhanced flow aloft and a
plume of deep-layer moisture progged to gradually spread northward
across much of the West through the period.

As this increase in moisture and flow overspreads the western U.S.,
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop across a broad area extending from Arizona and California
north to Oregon, and eastward into parts of
Montana/Wyoming/Colorado.  Within this area, the CAPE/shear
parameter space appears most favorable for a few organized storms
across Arizona and portions of Southern California/southern Nevada,
where a few of the strongest afternoon storms may produce
strong/gusty winds.  Isolated potential for strong convective gusts
will likely, however, exist across a much broader area, given
potential for low-level evaporation with in the sub-cloud mixed
layer.  Given the large/broad area of local/limited potential for
gusts reaching severe levels, coverage of anticipated events appears
insufficient to warrant a large MRGL/5% wind area.  If a smaller
geographic area or two of more concentrated potential becomes
apparent in later outlooks, MRGL risk upgrade may be required.

Elsewhere, severe storms are not anticipated through Sunday morning.

...Goss/Weinman.. 08/19/2023

$$

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