Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 18 2023 17:12:21

ACUS02 KWNS 181712
SWODY2
SPC AC 181710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears limited across the U.S. on
Saturday.

....Synopsis...
An expansive upper-level ridge will cover much of the central into
the southeast CONUS on Saturday. This ridge will suppress
thunderstorm development across most areas east of the Rockies and
generally limit severe potential. Moderate to strong buoyancy will
develop ahead of a cold front across the central/northern Plains and
upper Midwest, but thunderstorm development appears unlikely due to
the influence of the amplifying ridge. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly sheared regime from
coastal SC/GA into the FL Peninsula. Across the west, an upper-level
trough will persist near and just off of the CA coast. In response
to this trough, Hurricane Hilary will begin to move northward, with
NHC forecasting Hilary to approach Baja California by Sunday
morning.

....Southwest/Great Basin vicinity...
Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will be possible
across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin on Saturday, as
moisture continues to increase across the region. However, there is
uncertainty regarding any severe potential, with destabilization and
steepening of low-level lapse rates being modulated by coverage of
morning convection/cloudiness, and stronger deep-layer flow/shear
associated with Hilary expected to remain south of the region
through the end of the period.

Relatively speaking, the greatest potential for localized severe
gusts may be across parts of NV/UT, where convection will tend to be
higher-based compared to areas farther south. A strong storm or two
will also be possible across southeast CA, where stronger
destabilization is possible during the afternoon. Severe
probabilities may eventually be needed for portions of the region,
if corridors of somewhat organized severe potential eventually
become evident.

...Dean.. 08/18/2023

$$

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