Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2012
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 18 2023 13:23:48

ACUS11 KWNS 181323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181323=20
MAZ000-RIZ000-181430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0823 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Massachusetts

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181323Z - 181430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes will remain possible over the next hour as
a line of thunderstorms approaches the eastern Massachusetts coast.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30-45 minutes, at least two tight,
low-level velocity couplets associated with possible tornadoes have
been observed from the KBOX radar as a line of thunderstorms
approaches the Boston area. VPW observations are sampling 0-1 km SRH
on the order of 500 m2/s2, which is very favorable for a continued
tornado threat assuming low-level thermodynamics remain favorable.
Based on observed and forecast soundings, temperatures in the low
70s are required to achieve adequate low-level buoyancy for
near-surface based convection capable of pose a tornado threat.
Latest surface observations show these conditions exist immediately
ahead of the line along a warm frontal zone draped from the Boston
area southward into Plymouth county. Consequently, additional brief
tornadoes will be possible before this line of storms reaches the
coast - especially on the northern end where a supercell-line hybrid
storm mode is noted. Given the very small spatial and temporal scale
of this threat, a watch is not expected.

...Moore/Grams.. 08/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9gebfdEo61thDJOLRuh2ARFs1PilwgJYZwahaVp95gWPDyNg98Avc5yNYBPOwfDKtVEYYjK6B=
6CxgO7MMG_WFJZyZms$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...

LAT...LON   42397107 42467092 42457065 42367026 42157002 41957008
            41787036 41717069 41647122 41717132 42067114 42277118
            42397107=20


=3D =3D =3D
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