Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2011
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 18 2023 08:46:17

ACUS11 KWNS 180846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180845=20
NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-181115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023

Areas affected...far eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey...southern
New York and parts of southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 180845Z - 181115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may strengthen this morning, possibly
producing locally strong gusts or small hail.

DISCUSSION...A persistent, sub-severe line of thunderstorms
continues to move eastward ahead of the upper trough, now extending
from southern NY into eastern PA. A few storms have briefly shown
signs of strengthening with increasing echo tops or lightning
activity, but nothing has shown much organization in terms of severe
potential.=20

Notably over the last hour or so, new showers and thunderstorms have
formed over NJ, within a zone of low-level warm advection. GPS PW
values are increasing within a plume extending northeastward out of
MD/DE, and this influx of moisture is likely contributing to this
activity. This increase in moisture may soon interact with the
storms along the cold front to the north and west, resulting in
strengthening of the line. If this occurs, locally strong gusts
could occur. In addition, 0-1 km SRH is generally in the 100-150
m2/s2 range, which is typically favorable for rotation. However, the
surface air mass may remain a bit too cool for a tornado risk,
especially if the stronger echoes shift too far northeast away from
the theta-e gradient.

...Jewell.. 08/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9XwAsBbbnztV9b34DD7bLdypq88YAHwRst1Kg4SaO2q8Rt-DyabXmR25oFdoG0tpYeSh-iKSD=
3TrXg0ACY7PXdoakyk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   40287427 40357535 40477554 40607543 40997502 41557456
            41827444 42167420 42287365 42117305 41617293 40917341
            40367398 40287427=20


=3D =3D =3D
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