Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 18 2023 07:09:18 ACUS03 KWNS 180709 SWODY3 SPC AC 180708 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...WESTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEVADA... ....SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the weakening remnants of Hurricane Hilary may pose a risk of, primarily, severe wind gusts across parts of the lower Colorado Valley into the Mohave Desert late Sunday into Sunday night. ....Synopsis.. Much of the nation to the east of the Rockies will remain under the influence of prominent mid-level ridging, centered over the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley vicinity though this period. Areas of scattered thunderstorm development will largely be confined within plumes of higher moisture content air across portions of its southern and western periphery, aided by forcing for ascent associated with several perturbations. This includes the weakening remnants of Hurricane Hilary, which is forecast to continue accelerating north-northwestward across the Baja Peninsula into the Southwest and western portions of the Great Basin by late Sunday night. ....Southwest... Sufficient boundary-layer moistening to support a risk for supercells potentially capable of producing tornadoes remains unclear. However, north-northeast of Hilary, lower/mid 70s F surface dew points could advect from the northern Gulf of California into portions of the lower Colorado Valley, coincident with enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Otherwise, despite forecast thermodynamic profiles characterized by a considerable degree of saturation, strengthening of ambient south/southeasterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer (in excess of 50 kt) probably will contribute to at least some risk for convection capable of producing severe wind gusts, across surrounding areas northward into the Mohave Desert by late Sunday night. ...Kerr.. 08/18/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .