Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 18 2023 00:59:15 ACUS01 KWNS 180059 SWODY1 SPC AC 180057 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INDIANA/OHIO VICINITY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms accompanied locally by gusty winds will linger into this evening across parts of the central/southern Great Lakes region, and later tonight over parts of the Northeast. ....Indiana/Ohio vicinity... In the wake of an earlier, weak band of convection, a few stronger storms developed during the late afternoon hours along the cold front crossing Lower Michigan/Indiana/northwestern Ohio. While local risk for strong wind gusts is ongoing, expect this threat to diminish gradually this evening, as convection exits the narrow instability axis and moves into Ohio where a more stable environment exists -- in part due the leading band of convection/cloud cover. ....Eastern portions of the Pennsylvania vicinity to the Mid-Atlantic Coast... Isolated -- and thus far sub-severe -- thunderstorms are observed across central and eastern portions of New York and Pennsylvania early this evening. With an amply unstable airmass indicated east of the Appalachian Crest, sustained development of isolated storms is expected -- through the evening and into the overnight hours. With a sufficient combination of CAPE/shear across this area, a couple of the strongest storms may be capable of producing strong/gusty outflow winds and perhaps a brief tornado, through the overnight period. ....Great Basin/Four Corners area... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across a large portion of the West. The environment across this area -- ahead of an upper low off the California coast -- is characterized by modest instability above a deep mixed layer, and moderate southerly mid-level flow. With the moderate mid-level southerlies contributing to modest deep-layer shear, a couple of sustained, northward-moving storms may produce strong/gusty winds. However, potential for wind gusts reaching severe levels will remain very localized, with coverage likely to remain insufficient over the overall, broad region to warrant MRGL risk/5% wind probability. Convection will gradually diminish through mid to late evening. ...Goss.. 08/18/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .