Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 17 2023 16:10:44

ACUS01 KWNS 171610
SWODY1
SPC AC 171609

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the central/southern Great Lakes region, and perhaps
tonight over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.

....IN/OH/Lower MI...
A large and progressive upper trough is moving across the central
Great Lakes region today, with an associated surface cold front
digging southeastward across northern IL.  A pre-frontal band of
thunderstorms extends from central IL into lower MI, and is situated
along the axis of the low-level jet.  This precipitation will
significantly limit daytime heating for much of the day ahead of the
front and preclude a more organized severe threat.  Nevertheless, a
consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest a narrow corridor of heating
in the wake of this pre-frontal activity later this afternoon over
parts of IN/OH.  Sufficient instability and favorable deep-layer
shear will support a few organized storms, with a risk of strong
winds and hail in the most intense cells.  This threat should end
around sunset.

....PA/NJ/NY...
Later tonight, large scale forcing associated with the approaching
upper trough will spread into eastern PA and vicinity.  Greater
low-level moisture will be in place across this region as dewpoints
in the upper 60s advect northward.  Diurnal cooling/de-coupling will
likely limit the severe threat.  But there is some chance of an
occasional rotating storm during the late evening or overnight,
capable of gusty winds or perhaps a brief tornado.

...Hart/Bentley.. 08/17/2023

$$

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