Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 17 2023 09:00:42

ACUS48 KWNS 170900
SWOD48
SPC AC 170859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A persistent and climatologically anomalous upper-level anticyclone
will remain centered over the lower MS Valley during the Day 4-8
time frame. An upper-level trough will remain near the western U.S.
coast as Tropical/Post Tropical Cyclone Hilary lifts generally north
Sunday/D4 and Monday/D5 across CA. Within this large-scale regime, a
belt of strong west/northwest mid-level flow will be largely
confined to the northern Plains/Great Lakes and northeast states,
while stronger mid-level southerly flow will remain established
across the Great Basin/northern Rockies.

Severe thunderstorms appear possible on Sunday/D4 across portions of
the central/northern Plains, where moisture pooling near a
stationary front will contribute to very strong/extreme MLCAPE. At
this juncture, concerns over cap strength and position of the front
render low confidence in pinpointing the most likely area for
severe. In addition, some severe potential may ultimately exist in
association with Tropical/Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary Sunday and
perhaps Monday/D5 depending on the eventual track and intensity of
this system. Will defer possible introduction of severe
probabilities to later outlooks.

Otherwise, daily thunderstorm chances, including some severe risk,
will exist in areas mainly around the periphery of the upper-level
anticyclone and associated with migratory disturbances embedded
within the stronger mid-level flow. Uncertainty regarding the timing
of these disturbances and mesoscale details at this extended range
precludes introduction of daily 15 percent severe probabilities with
this outlook.

...Bunting.. 08/17/2023

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