Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2008
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 17 2023 02:52:53

ACUS11 KWNS 170252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170252=20
WIZ000-MIZ000-170445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Areas affected...Northwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652...

Valid 170252Z - 170445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652
continues.

SUMMARY...A large hail and wind-damage threat will likely continue
for a few more hours, but the threat is expected to become isolated
and marginal by midnight. While additional weather watch issuance
can not be totally ruled out, a new watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Duluth
shows an MCS over the northwestern Great Lakes. The MCS consists of
a cluster of strong to severe storms, most notably over northern
Wisconsin. The storms are located ahead of a cold front, along and
near an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP is estimating
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings in
northern Wisconsin late this evening have 0-6 km shear around 50
knots with strong speed shear and some directional shear in the
lowest 2 km. This wind profile will likely support a continued
severe threat for a few more hours. Large hail and wind damage will
be the primary threats. However, the severe potential should become
more isolated and marginal toward midnight, as instability continues
to decrease across the region.

...Broyles.. 08/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5YL5EA1mfsZSZeaVQxy5z3O9UXz8rNeXddZPH476cjZRTvVs8FuwBP_Sn78_okdPgnM_JJQzJ=
1RzS9xIScbm-DI5OII$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45739173 45269226 44839230 44469182 44459097 45159007
            45688945 46168952 46439027 46259107 45739173=20


=3D =3D =3D
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