Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 17 2023 01:01:39

ACUS01 KWNS 170101
SWODY1
SPC AC 170100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms will continue over the next few hours across portions
of Wisconsin. east-central and southeastern Minnesota, and a small
portion of western Upper Michigan.

....Upper Mississippi Valley area...
A band of vigorous/fast-moving, and locally severe convection is
moving quickly southeastward across the northwestern Wisconsin
vicinity at this time, ahead of an advancing cold front and
parent/digging upper short-wave trough.  New convection is also
initiating at this time over south-central Minnesota, and may become
strong/severe into the next hour or two.

Later this evening, storms should gradually diminish in intensity,
as instability diminishes substantially with eastward extent into
central Upper Michigan and central Wisconsin.  Until then, aided by
ample instability and moderately strong/weakly veering flow with
height through the mid troposphere, risk for locally damaging winds
and hail -- and possibly a tornado -- will continue over the next
few hours.

....Coastal portions of the Southeast into southern Georgia and
Florida...
Widespread storms are ongoing at this time near and ahead of a cold
front lingering over coastal portions of the Southeast.  While a
general, diurnal wane in convective intensity has been observed over
the past hours, local risk for gusty winds and marginal hail will
persist for the next couple of hours with isolated, stronger cores.

...Goss.. 08/17/2023

$$

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