Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2006
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 17 2023 00:31:10

ACUS11 KWNS 170031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170030=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-170230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Minnesota...Northern and Western
Wisconsin...Western Upper Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652...

Valid 170030Z - 170230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage is expected to
continue over the next few hours, from eastern Minnesota into
northwest Wisconsin and far western Upper Michigan.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Duluth
shows a continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms across
northern Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota. This line is located
near a cold front, along an axis of moderate instability where the
RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This
convection is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with
an upper-level trough moving eastward into the upper Mississippi
Valley. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Duluth has 0-6 km shear near 65
knots with strong speed shear in the lowest 2 km above ground level.
This wind profile will continue to support a severe threat as the
line move eastward across northwestern Wisconsin this evening. The
RAP also has 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km suggesting a
threat for large hail will be possible with embedded cells that
rotate. A wind-damage threat will also be possible along the leading
edge of the more intense and faster moving parts of the line.

...Broyles.. 08/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8vdJgk_dBL1TAECtW0pAd3DUYkmZrJG9fqdGbuIyb8p7X3ZpCGqGNV9YhvqZUtHNeT30xITNl=
5fx8xXH_85KOJEt_MM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   47289064 47149108 46719193 46459261 46149346 45739358
            45359330 45089274 44909176 45099072 45519000 46098950
            46658939 47088973 47289064=20


=3D =3D =3D
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