Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 16 2023 21:01:25

AWUS01 KWNH 162101
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-170300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0936
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Areas affected...Georgia and Carolina Coastal Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162100Z - 170300Z

Summary...Slow moving and repeating heavy thunderstorms will
continue over the coastal plains portions of Georgia and the
Carolinas into this evening. Expanding coverage of max rainfall
rates  of 2.5"/hr into this evening the afternoon should support
localized flash flooding, particularly in vulnerable urban areas.

Discussion...Recent GOES-16 visible imagery and regional radar
mosaic depict expanding thunderstorm coverage east of a stationary
front near the Fall Line in NC/SC/GA. This area has high
instability of 2500-3500 J/kg SBCAPE with southwesterly flow
supporting a very moist vertical profile with 2.0-2.3" PWATs and a
deep warm cloud layer. SWly mean layer flow is fairly light at
15-20kt and is parallel to both the ongoing activity as well as
the front. Hourly rainfall estimates from KMHX, KLTX and KCLX have
been up to 2.5".

Into the evening hours, convection is expected to continue
expanding and intensifying in linear clusters oriented with storm
motion and support greater instances of rainfall rates of 2.5"/hr.
Although FFGs across the area are generally high at 2.5 to 3"/hr,
the repeating nature of this activity should cause localized FFG
exceedance, particularly over urban areas and places that received
heavy rain in the activity last evening.

Areas farther south into north Florida have organized heavy
thunderstorm clusters this afternoon, but with even high FFG
there, the flash flood threat there is expected to be rather
localized.=20

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7GxnY1P-g-qrMf97UlC6OtXcOUDOTmwrMDoSIFXSQL4egRuGNztROQ4nmHHw9jrXWtOf=
SyvERub8tEkPmM5oRcWCTNc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...JAX...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36307663 36227600 34957616 34527659 33957773=20
            33617839 32837909 30798132 31988264 33038164=20
            34178027 35357856=20

=3D =3D =3D
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