Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2005
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 16 2023 20:40:10

ACUS11 KWNS 162040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162039=20
MNZ000-WIZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 162039Z - 162315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along or perhaps
slightly behind a cold front across northern Minnesota late this
afternoon or early this evening. This region continues to
destabilize with MLCAPE around 750 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and it is
expected to increase to as high as 1500 J/kg later this evening.
Currently the airmass remains capped, but additional surface heating
and cooling temperatures aloft should mostly eliminate inhibition by
around 22 UTC. Once storms form, strong mid-level flow at least
partially normal to the front should support a broken line of
supercells. Instability will start to wane quickly after sunset and
a drier airmass is present across Wisconsin. Therefore, storms may
persist for a few hours after dark but are expected to weaken by
late evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat from this activity.

...Bentley/Hart.. 08/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!97leo6udoQJ3IPtAjwsktynPorwibfNx2W1ZwW0Vzn9_dIo4MhLIznaeCGWqMt9O5QsyQ2cqf=
EaJh8yOFISTXohtcaI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   48319083 48179010 48078967 47878965 47389035 46759087
            46349152 45559288 45439399 45419512 45539551 45689571
            46129523 47299386 48299245 48449212 48159152 48229110
            48319083=20


=3D =3D =3D
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