Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 16 2023 19:58:38

ACUS01 KWNS 161958
SWODY1
SPC AC 161957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected this
afternoon and evening across parts Minnesota, Wisconsin, and western
Upper Michigan.

....Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

...Smith.. 08/16/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023/

....MN/WI/Western Upper MI...
Latest surface analysis shows a strong cold front surging
southeastward across ND.  Southerly low-level winds ahead of the
front, along with shallow vertical mixing below a capping inversion,
have resulted in a corridor of low-mid 60s dewpoints across much of
MN.  Strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will
yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 2500 J/kg.  The cap will likely
focus thunderstorm development to immediately along or even slightly
behind the cold front, but given the strong winds aloft and focused
convergence, a few intense bowing structures are expected.  Damaging
winds and hail appear to be the main threats.  Storms will likely
persist a few hours after dark and track into parts of
northern/central WI and western Upper MI before weakening.

....southern GA/SC/FL...
A very moist/unstable air mass will be present again today ahead of
a cold front sagging into the southeast states.  Winds aloft and
large scale forcing are weak, suggesting convection will be
relatively disorganized.  Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates
and water-loading will contribute to isolated instances of damaging
wind gusts in the stronger cells.

$$

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