Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 16 2023 18:07:20

AWUS01 KWNH 161807
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-170004-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0935
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Areas affected...Southern Utah into Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161804Z - 170004Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal thunderstorms ahead of a mid-level impulse to
pose a localized flash flood threat through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Satellite IR/WV imagery shows a mid-level impulse
over the Grand Canyon that is drifting north-northwest to
southwest UT on the west of a ridge axis that tracks down the
western side of the Rockies. The area ahead of this impulse has PW
of 1.0-1.25" which is 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal.
This particular area has also received full morning sunshine and
instability is building with 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE which could
raise to 2000 J/kg by mid afternoon. Scattered heavy thunderstorms
are expected to develop in this moist and unstable environment
with the enhanced development from the lift ahead of the impulse
across southwest UT (which includes the western half of the main
slot canyon region of UT) as well as the range and valley areas of
eastern NV, north from the north rim of the Grand Canyon
(including the Kaibab Plateau) and up through the southern Wasatch
Mtns to the southern shore of the Great Salt Lake.=20

12Z CAMs and recent HRRRs generally underplay convective
development today, but the ARW2 and NAMnest suggest decent terrain
based coverage and are in agreement with the first convection that
has developed along the southern Wasatch and the Kaibab Plateau.
Through this afternoon, heavy thunderstorms could produce flash
flooding in areas that contain saturated or sensitive soils, as
well as in dry washes and slot canyons.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_AjoI3Gjun8Y146KOgWWLuc7a7V70CwJy6Z7C4v7gxXiWbFJ7sWkD4WiaLC7HhNpt5si=
Or73l0NDBrBx9y2ll0npVX8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40801136 38791142 37221074 36641104 36411207=20
            36651348 37821531 39471575 40141479=20

=3D =3D =3D
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