Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 14 2023 12:01:35

AWUS01 KWNH 141201
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-141700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0923
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Areas affected...Northern Tennessee into Southeastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141200Z - 141700Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms to cause localized flash flooding
over northern Tennessee into southeastern Kentucky. Rainfall 1-3"
possible through noon.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depict a developing line
thunderstorms over northwestern TN which are south of a surface
low/MCV over northern KY. This activity is oriented WSW-ENE which
is parallel to the 35kt WSWly mean layer flow. Sufficient
instability is present along ahead of this activity with MUCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg over western KY/TN. Instability does decrease to
the east, though instability is advecting  with the mean flow. A
strong moisture gradient is noted through this activity with PWs
of 2.0-2.2" along the activity and this is also advecting ENE with
the mean flow. Also, upper level divergence will will increase as
the upper low over Iowa approaches with the right entrance region
of the SWly jet.

Scattered 1.5-2" hourly rainfall estimates recently from KPAH and
KHPX will continue given the environment. This area has been wet
lately with FFG generally 1.5-2"/hrs with the more sensitive
Nashville metro downstream of the activity.

More progressive activity is over central KY, but conceptually
speaking, the activity farther south over south-central KY may
also join the TN activity in orienting with the deep layer mean
flow with southeast KY having lower FFG.

Outflow is noted from this activity on regional NEXRAD which may
disrupt the heavy rain threat. Recent CAMs are struggling with
this activity, but the environment should allow redevelopment with
recent 10.3 micron IR imagery continuing to show cooling cloud
tops. Flash flooding is considered possible.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9GNTNEJu1BBRAt_Sw-mFtFB9VQLB1hTdy6Mm2ZrBGmEu40qJu6BiLd3z7VVYZDnFaxW5=
GoSC3YsxFAAM3uKWdPwJTO8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37528399 35988480 35368727 35348917 35598962=20
            36118927 36348812 37398631=20

=3D =3D =3D
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