Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 14 2023 08:44:28

ACUS48 KWNS 140844
SWOD48
SPC AC 140842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from northwestern
Ontario southward into the mid MS Valley early D4/Thursday. This
shortwave is expected to becoming increasingly negatively tilted as
it progresses eastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will likely be
limited across Lower MI and the OH Valley as this shortwave and
attendant cold front move through, mitigating the
severe-thunderstorm potential. This cold front will continue
eastward into the Northeast on D5/Friday, and some low-probability
severe potential may develop over southern New England as a weak
surface low deepens ahead of the front.

Strong upper ridging is expected to build across the central CONUS
in the wake of this shortwave trough. This ridging is expected to
persist into early next week while drifting gradually eastward.
Recent guidance suggests a surface low may develop over the Dakotas
on D6/Saturday amid westerly flow aloft and ample low-level
moisture. However, poor consistency within the guidance limits
forecast confidence regarding the development of this. Even if this
low does develop, warm mid-level temperature will likely suppress
thunderstorm development.

...Mosier.. 08/14/2023

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