Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 14 2023 07:15:29

ACUS03 KWNS 140715
SWODY3
SPC AC 140714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Upper Midwest Wednesday evening.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to drop from the Canadian
Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on
Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave
trough, with 50 to 70 kt of 500-mb flow likely across MN by late
Wednesday afternoon/early evening.

Surface low associated with this system will likely stay north of
the international border, but an attendant cold front is expected to
sweep southeastward, reaching the Upper Midwest by Wednesday
evening. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints should be in place ahead of this
front across MN. Strong diurnal heating is also expected ahead of
this front, but warm and dry southwesterly low-level flow could
prevent the airmass from fully destabilizing. As a result, some
guidance keeps significant convective inhibition in place from the
mid MO Valley into southern MN. This convective inhibition, coupled
with faster frontal progression on the latest guidance, casts doubt
on the thunderstorm potential from the eastern Dakotas into the Mid
MO Valley and central Plains. Airmass destabilization still appears
probable farther north into east-central MN and west-central WI,
with severe thunderstorms possible as the front moves into this
area.

Farther east, thunderstorms are expected from NC southward into FL,
where a moist airmass will remain in place ahead of a stalled front.
Weak vertical shear should limit the severe-thunderstorm potential.
Numerous thunderstorms are also expected in the Four Corners
vicinity, where mid-level moisture will remain in place beneath the
upper ridging. Weak vertical shear will limit the thunderstorm
potential in this area as well.

...Mosier.. 08/14/2023

$$

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