Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1989
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 14 2023 06:35:43

ACUS11 KWNS 140635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140635=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-140800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1989
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Areas affected...Northeast OK into northern AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644...645...

Valid 140635Z - 140800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644, 645
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for severe gusts will spread into northwest AR
overnight. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent of the threat
into north-central AR, but downstream watch issuance remains
possible.

DISCUSSION...Two bowing storm clusters with a history of producing
severe gusts are moving across northeast OK at 0630 UTC. These
clusters will move into northwest AR through the early morning
hours, with MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and effective shear 30-40 kt
remaining generally supportive for organized convection. However, as
these clusters move eastward and convective outflow sags southward
immediately downstream, convection may tend to become increasingly
elevated with time. Despite this, given the current organized state
of the ongoing convection, some severe-gust potential is expected to
spread into northwest AR over the next 1-2 hours.

As outflow continues to move southward in advance of the ongoing
storm clusters, a gradual weakening trend will be possible with
time. As a result, severe-wind potential into north-central AR
remains uncertain, but watch issuance into this region remains
possible depending on short-term observational trends.

...Dean/Edwards.. 08/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6HZevSBuFezAeAksmcx6ob7i9tyQo92xdgkquBSwowes-7u1NNWGv7ZwkTyBe0IbQHeyF0i1R=
L94Y2-sJCwNsaUTYaE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35679158 35609408 35659491 35879545 36269584 36659575
            36639381 36659201 36639168 36469142 36059146 35809151
            35679158=20


=3D =3D =3D
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