Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 14 2023 05:57:29 ACUS02 KWNS 140557 SWODY2 SPC AC 140556 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHEAST VA INTO NORTHEAST NC... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening from southern New England into Georgia. Highest severe-thunderstorm coverage is expected from the southern Delmarva Peninsula through southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina. ....Synopsis... A shortwave trough will likely extend from southern Ontario southwestward into the Mid-South early Tuesday morning before then progressing eastward across the OH and TN Valleys into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, beginning the period stretched from the TN Valley into southern New England. This belt of stronger flow will move eastward in tandem with its parent shortwave, likely stretching from the western Carolinas through the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England at 00Z Wednesday. Surface pattern early Tuesday will likely feature a pair of surface lows, one over the Lower Great Lakes and the other closer to the NY/PA/NJ border intersection. The western low is forecast to fill throughout the day, while the eastward low gradually deepens and moves northeastward just off the southern New England coast. A cold front should extend southwestward from the eastern low through the western Carolinas into the Southeast early Tuesday morning. This front is forecast to progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day, with greater eastward progression anticipated farther north closer to more progressive portion of the shortwave trough. ....Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southern New England early Tuesday morning, near the eastern surface low (and associated warm front) mentioned in the synopsis. Buoyancy will be limited and much of the activity will likely be north of the warm front. Even so, isolated surface-based storms near the warm front may persist long enough for some organization, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts and perhaps even a tornado. ....Mid-Atlantic into GA... A moist low-level airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the low 70s, will be in place ahead of the cold front from VA southward into the Southeast. Airmass destabilization is anticipated amid strong daytime heating, with moderate to strong buoyancy expected by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the cold front impinges on this environment. The strongest vertical shear is expected from northern NC northward, with the resulting combination of shear and buoyancy expected to support severe thunderstorms. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk. More isolated severe-storm coverage is anticipated farther south into the Southeast, where vertical shear is weaker. ....AZ... Numerous thunderstorms are possible across AZ as mid-level moisture remains over the region. Greatest coverage is expected over the higher terrain, but some storms are possible over the lower deserts as well. Even so, there is still uncertainty regarding overall coverage into the lower deserts, and low-level easterly flow will be weak. These factors are expected to keep the severe-thunderstorm risk isolated. ...Mosier.. 08/14/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .