Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1988
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 14 2023 03:42:25

ACUS11 KWNS 140342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140342=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1988
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Areas affected...northeastern Oklahoma...adjacent southeastern
Kansas...northwestern Arkansas into southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642...644...645...

Valid 140342Z - 140545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642, 644,
645 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development will persist and slowly
spread eastward through 1-2 AM CDT, posing a continuing risk for
damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...A weakly organized convective cluster continues slowly
spreading east-northeastward across the northwestern through north
central Oklahoma vicinity, around the northwestern periphery of the
mid-level subtropical ridge.  This ridging will continue to slowly
become suppressed southward overnight, as a significant short wave
trough continues to dig through the mid into lower Missouri Valley.

Through 05-07Z, the latest Rapid Refresh indicates that the
associated developing cold front will continue to slowly advance
southward through northern Oklahoma and southern Missouri.=20
Seasonably high moisture content lifted above the leading edge of
the low-level cooling likely will remain characterized by large
CAPE, and supportive of continuing strong thunderstorm development
across the Tulsa OK area into the West Plains MO vicinity.  Aided by
favorable shear on the southern periphery of the mid-level
westerlies, scattered strong to severe surface gusts will remain
possible.

...Kerr.. 08/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7lNiNzaRgFAWnwncsaoXRROIrzL4ryP8frGcC7YHw9Lz34BMWul0Uox0QH3oBNQ84cP4kL9kh=
VTca2oQ7tOEhqF6PDM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36529704 36899605 37289430 37409312 37319203 36529164
            36139362 35639547 35589749 36529704=20


=3D =3D =3D
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