Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 14 2023 00:58:54

ACUS01 KWNS 140058
SWODY1
SPC AC 140057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms accompanied by the potential for damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and a tornado or two will continue this evening and into
the overnight hours, especially from parts of Kansas and Oklahoma
eastward across the Ozarks, and into the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio
Valleys.

....Portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle eastward to
western parts of Kentucky and Tennessee...
A cluster of eastward-moving storms continues across the Texas
Panhandle region early this evening, with convection gradually
spreading into northwestern Oklahoma.  The storms are ongoing within
a moderately unstable airmass near a southward-moving front, which
extends northeastward across southern and eastern Kansas.  As these
storms continue eastward, risk for hail and locally damaging wind
gusts will persist across the Oklahoma vicinity through the evening
and possibly into the overnight hours.

Meanwhile, more isolated storms are developing along the front as
far northeast as eastern Kansas at this time, where several strong
storms including a couple of supercells are ongoing.  Additional
increases in storm coverage across eastern Kansas in the vicinity of
the boundary -- and potentially upscale growth into an
organized/east-southeastward-moving convective system -- remains
possible this evening.  As such, the greatest potential for the more
organized/widespread severe risk remains across the portions of
southeastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma and into the Ozarks area,
where an overlap of a favorably unstable airmass, and moderately
strong westerly low- and mid-level flow, is observed.
Storms will spread eastward with time, likely spreading as far east
as western portions of Kentucky and Tennessee late in the period.

...Goss.. 08/14/2023

$$

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