Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1987
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 14 2023 00:16:24

ACUS11 KWNS 140016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140015=20
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1987
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Kansas...northern Oklahoma and
adjacent southwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642...643...

Valid 140015Z - 140215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642, 643
continues.

SUMMARY...Increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development is
expected into the 8-10 PM CDT time frame, including gradually
organizing clusters posing a risk for severe wind.  Trends are being
monitored for an additional severe weather watch across northeastern
Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a significant short wave troughing
digging across the Dakotas, the leading edge of stronger low-level
cold advection has already surged through much of northern/western
Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity.  Near/just ahead
of this regime, scattered deepening convective development is
evident from west of Medicine Lodge through the Chanute vicinity.=20
At the same time, a gradually consolidating cluster of storms is
spreading east-northeast of the eastern Texas Panhandle vicinity,
with another developing cluster from an initial supercell
propagating east-southeast of Emporia.

Through 01-03Z, large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by weak
low-level warm advection ahead of the developing cold front, appears
likely to continue to gradually overcome mid-level inhibition
associated with relatively warm mid-levels.  In the presence of a
seasonably warm and moist boundary layer characterized by large CAPE
on the order of 2000-3000+ J/kg, increasing and intensifying
thunderstorm development appears likely.  Near the southern
periphery of the westerlies, 30-40 kt of deep-layer vertical shear
probably will contribute to organizing clusters with potential to
produce severe wind.

...Kerr.. 08/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_cbVf5zg_V6hvdEMaf1WA9p5w06KcbTqcWzsucOIRKa9MxS3yejvhFcLjiNsyfIp5eyfR8XPU=
rP677kIVgz3LJyjepU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36889973 37819611 37659348 36769394 35879742 35419974
            35639988 36239945 36889973=20


=3D =3D =3D
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