Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1986
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 13 2023 23:34:53

ACUS11 KWNS 132334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132334=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern IL into...southwestern
IN...and far northwest KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132334Z - 140100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible along and
south of the frontal zone through this evening. Severe coverage is
expected to remain low and a weather watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2325 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
scattered thunderstorms were slowly intensifying along a frontal
zone across the mid MS and lower OH Valleys. Early day convection
and lingering cloud cover has resulted in stunted heating through
much of the afternoon. As a result, buoyancy is not particularly
large around 500-1000 J/kg despite surface dewpoints in the mid 70s
F. A few storms have managed to develop and slowly intensify along
the front over the last hour. Area VADs are supportive of storm
organization with 40-45 kt of effective shear. Deep-layer shear will
support transient supercell structures capable of isolated hail and
a few damaging gusts. The coverage of organized storms appears low
given the limited buoyancy and WW is unlikely.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 08/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_JA53TLKPMMDb0-aRzJvTgGAn61K7Tilo5Rl7mqg4K9kWGsRa-GdLvnP56cIkjn06JoltCPOl=
c3VkiSURynTj9iSA9c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38458988 38878959 38898898 38708828 38498775 38238743
            37998733 37618741 37488775 37518826 37628892 37758915
            38078970 38188979 38458988=20


=3D =3D =3D
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