Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1984
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 13 2023 20:04:21

ACUS11 KWNS 132004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132003=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-132200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1984
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 132003Z - 132200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms across the western Texas
Panhandle and northeast New Mexico will migrate into a more unstable
air mass in the coming hours. As this occurs, the potential for
severe wind will increase. Watch issuance is possible in the coming
hours.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, GOES visible imagery and
regional radars have shown deepening cumulus and the initial stages
of convective initiation across northeast New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle along a diffuse lee surface trough and a southward-surging
cold front. Most storms are developing on the periphery of richer
boundary-layer moisture where dewpoints have mixed out to the upper
50s and low 60s, and LCLs are estimated to be between 2-3 km. A
combination of dry, well-mixed boundary-layer conditions and modest
shear throughout the column should favor outflow-dominant storms
with the potential for strong to severe downburst winds.
Re-development along outflow boundaries appears probable given
continued downstream destabilization (diminishing MLCIN is noted in
recent RAP mesoanalyses with MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg across
western OK). Consequently, the severe wind potential is expected to
spread to the east/northeast through the late afternoon and evening
hours. A more localized severe hail threat may materialize across
the northern Panhandle region into southwest KS where mid-level flow
is slightly stronger, resulting in more elongated hodographs,
however, this potential may be modulated by a more clustered storm
mode along the cold front. Watch issuance is possible in the coming
hours to address these concerns.

...Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9Rh2vzhjFni7CPY_wopFi9LTsx-bLLIVFCKL3urFfQaW4t75c3GDnsR6uUkUmXorbJOYR0Wqq=
24w7QYhmRvx0stwmfg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35519886 34919951 34689990 34560023 34500184 34540220
            34750245 35090267 36270263 36500248 36990140 37130078
            37139889 36949862 36709840 36159849 35519886=20


=3D =3D =3D
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