Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1982 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 13 2023 19:45:23 ACUS11 KWNS 131945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131944=20 KSZ000-132145- Mesoscale Discussion 1982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Areas affected...central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20 Valid 131944Z - 132145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is expected by the late afternoon hours over central Kansas. While timing remains uncertain, a watch issuance will likely be needed given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment for severe storms. DISCUSSION...19 UTC surface analysis places a surface low to the north/northeast of the Dodge City, KS area with an attendant cold (warm) front draped to the southwest (east/northeast). Warm sector temperatures in the vicinity of the low have risen to the upper 80s over the past hour, which should be approaching adequate temperatures to erode mixed-layer inhibition per RAP forecast soundings. This idea is supported by recent visible satellite imagery, which has show a stead increase in coverage and vertical depth of cumulus along the warm front and ahead of a diffuse surface trough. While convective initiation does not appear immediately imminent, these trends suggest that thunderstorm development is likely by late afternoon as destabilization and lift along the frontal boundaries continue.=20 MLCAPE values should approach 2000-3000 J/kg by the time of CI, and 35-45 knot mid-level flow atop relatively weak boundary-layer winds will support adequate deep-layer shear for organized convection. The zonal flow regime aloft will favor largely along-boundary deep-layer shear and initial storm motion vectors, favoring initially discrete cells along the cold front and a tendency for upscale growth into clusters along the warm front. Initial cells along the warm front may realize ambient low-level vorticity present along the boundary, and become sufficiently organized to pose a tornado threat prior to upscale growth. Otherwise, a large hail/severe wind threat should materialize across much of central KS. The timing of watch issuance remains uncertain, but will likely be needed by the late afternoon hours across central KS. ...Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8CSyDRfETJ6DhQxdj2pzKJpWAuWpV2g-ud8rEYA3j88ngSjWrPTPQeisp73KDnB96BjIH6aF3= nf_v0sl3ToeqdCG2jM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37099907 37029958 37080020 37170074 37500087 38560029 39559978 39929909 39989794 39279654 38949620 38569632 37739759 37299846 37099907=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .