Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 13 2023 18:34:56

AWUS01 KWNH 131834
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-140015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0919
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Areas affected...Maine

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131832Z - 140015Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall rates will pose concerns for a few isolated instances of
flash flooding across Maine this afternoon given moist antecedent
conditions.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough and associated cold front
crossing the Northeast will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon, with generally the
greatest concentration across Maine. Already there are expanding
areas of convection seen in GOES-E visible satellite imagery and
dual-pol radar and some additional expansion in coverage is
expected over the next few hours.

Facilitating the convective threat is a nose of MLCAPE values
exceeding 1500 J/kg up across areas of central and southern Maine
ahead of the front, and this coupled with 30 to 40 kts of
effective bulk shear should favor plenty of multi-cell convection
capable of producing rainfall rates that may reach 1 to 1.5+
inches/hour.

The latest HREF guidance does show rather elevated probabilities
of seeing 1+ inch/hour rainfall rates and exceedance of the 3-hour
FFG values which are rather low given recent rainfall. Some
localized storm totals of 2 to 3 inches will be possible going
through the late afternoon hours.

Streamflows across Maine are also running quite high, and coupled
with moist soil conditions, the additional heavy rainfall threat
for this afternoon will encourage more efficient runoff and
potentially a few instances of flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8b2TvsnfmmLU-dStyHklo7CJuzL2M24aaeab11-cisk8Y5LGZC7H3CGu8eCGaPvqYy9U=
PdmoJZWbt0x-th7vKb-wRH0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47536818 46916742 45216791 44096924 43917026=20
            44247107 45167109 46306995 47476912=20

=3D =3D =3D
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