Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 13 2023 17:49:53 AWUS01 KWNH 131749 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-132347- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0916 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Areas affected...Far Eastern KS through Central MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 131747Z - 132347Z SUMMARY...New rounds of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms going through the afternoon hours coupled with moist to locally saturated soil conditions may result in some potential for pockets of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery is showing new rounds of cooling convective tops over areas of far eastern KS and advancing into northwest to west-central MO as showers and thunderstorms redevelop over this region. The additional activity is associated with the gradual approach of a surface low pressure system over northwest KS along with a well-defined front extending east of that down across the Lower MO Valley. 3-hour MLCAPE differentials show instability becoming refocused along this front with a pool of moderate instability now seen extending along the boundary from central KS east into west-central to southwest MO where MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in place. There is a rather well-defined moisture convergence axis noted along the front and this coupled with increasingly divergent flow aloft ahead of an upper-level trough dropping southeast across the northern Plains should tend to allow for convection to redevelop and expand in coverage this afternoon along the boundary. Already there have been multiple rounds of convection that have impacted the region since early this morning with some locations seeing as much as 2 to 4 inches since 12Z (7AM CDT). This has allowed for soils to moisten up and drive locally elevated streamflows. The additional convective activity going through the afternoon hours may result in an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain at least locally where cells can tend to repeat over the same area which will be possible given the west to east orientation of the aforementioned front. The 12Z HREF guidance has generally a poor handle of the ongoing activity and appears to be under doing some of the convective potential given the latest convective trends and related pooling of instability along the boundary. PWs across the region are quite high with values of 1.75+ inches. And this coupled with the increasing instability should yield an uptick in rainfall rates that will likely exceed 2 inches per hour with the stronger storms. Expect a threat for some flash flooding this afternoon given the increasingly wet antecedent conditions and additional heavy rainfall. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!64QWWscFEurNMQV77z2anftCoAKSRxxKqBt59vOTxE2uV4XrJgkzCdiDhzpgb8QsRFA3= H3s81Ng9P0FzAhpnhlYERSs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39649305 39519190 39199132 38689149 38479249=20 38549447 38749543 39189542 39539433=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .