Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 13 2023 08:31:20

ACUS48 KWNS 130831
SWOD48
SPC AC 130829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a strong shortwave
trough will progress from the northern Plains through the Upper
Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, OH Valley, and into the Northeast from
D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday. Some severe appears probable as the
shortwave progresses eastward, particularly on D4/Wednesday across
the Upper Midwest where mid 60s dewpoints will contribute to
moderate afternoon/evening buoyancy ahead of a cold front associated
with the shortwave. Thunderstorms are possible across Lower MI as
the shortwave and associated cold front push through on D5/Thursday.
However, moisture may be more limited that on D4/Wednesday, and
there are some questions regarding frontal timing as well. Some
thunderstorms are possible across Northeast on D6/Friday as well,
but similar issues to Day 5/Thursday (i.e. more limited buoyancy and
uncertain frontal timing) limit forecast confidence.

An active northern stream looks to persist into the weekend, with
another strong shortwave trough and attendant cold front potentially
moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D6/Friday or
D7/Saturday. Variability within the guidance is high, limiting
forecast confidence and predictability.

...Mosier.. 08/13/2023

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