Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 13 2023 07:13:18 ACUS03 KWNS 130713 SWODY3 SPC AC 130712 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening from the Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas. Highest severe-thunderstorm coverage is expected from southeast Virginia into southern New Jersey. ....Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will likely extend from southern Ontario southwestward into the Mid-South early Tuesday morning. Surface low associated with this wave should be over the Lower Great Lakes, with an additional triple-point low farther east near the eastern PA/NY border vicinity. A cold front will extend southwestward from this triple-point low into the central Carolinas. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward across the OH Valley and Upper Great Lakes and into the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast. As it does, the strong mid-level flow accompanying this system will spread eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and into southern New England. The associated cold front will progress eastward as well. A moist low-level airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the low 70s, will be in place ahead of the cold front from the Carolinas northward into southeastern PA and southern NJ. Airmass destabilization is anticipated amid strong daytime heating, with moderate to strong buoyancy expected by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the cold front impinges on this environment. The strongest vertical shear is expected from VA northward, with the resulting combination of shear and buoyancy expected to support severe thunderstorms. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk. More isolated storm coverage is anticipated farther south into the eastern Carolinas where vertical shear is weaker and mixing contributes to lower buoyancy. Elsewhere, numerous thunderstorms are possible across AZ as mid-level moisture remains over the region. Greatest coverage is expected over the higher terrain, but some storms are possible over the lower deserts as well. Even so, there is still uncertainty regarding overall coverage into the lower deserts, and low-level easterly flow will be weak. These factors preclude introducing any severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Mosier.. 08/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .