Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1976
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 13 2023 01:02:44

ACUS11 KWNS 130102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130102=20
NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-130230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1976
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...Eastern PA...northern NJ...western NY/CT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638...

Valid 130102Z - 130230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and isolated hail will
continue this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 0055, a couple clusters of strong to severe
storms were ongoing over parts of southern NY and eastern PA
respectively. These storms have produced several reports of wind
damage and hail over the last couple of hours. Recent HRRR and radar
trends suggest these storms should remain capable of isolated wind
damage and hail into western portions of CT tonight.

Farther south into southeastern PA, new convective development was
noted west of Allentown. Likely in response to an increase in
synoptic support from the approaching trough, these storms may
continue to intensify and pose an isolated severe risk into central
NJ over the next couple of hours. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50
kt of deep-layer shear would support a risk for damaging gusts and
isolated hail if storms are able to organize. However, with the loss
of diurnal heating, there remains some uncertainty on if storms will
be able to mature prior to nocturnal stabilization.

...Lyons.. 08/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_vBATnigWWG_9R9opq2s3OjC-NFCxFaE_xxIk0i7_mlAo-Va95nZm4QiQEVEsNNJ37GJtqd6N=
lN88UnG-_TAfd1a1Q4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40127529 40487588 40867594 41367556 42117456 42267396
            42337359 42327323 42237292 41797283 41417291 40917342
            40687367 40557383 40337406 40107433 39977464 40047526
            40127529=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.