Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1975
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 23:32:15

ACUS11 KWNS 122332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122331=20
MDZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-130100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern OH...northern
WV...southwestern PA and western MD.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 634...

Valid 122331Z - 130100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 634 continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms in the southern half of WW634 will
likely persist beyond the 01z expiration. A new watch will likely be
needed.

DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC, several supercells were ongoing across
parts of far eastern OH, and western PA. These storms have
maintained intensity and should continue to do so after the 01z
expiration of WW634. 40-50 kt of effective shear and 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE will favor organized storms including supercells and short
line segments. Damaging wind gusts and hail appear likely with the
strongest storms into this evening. Veered low-level flow in the
wake of the earlier rounds of storms suggests the tornado threat is
not overly high. However, a brief tornado will remain possible given
the supercell mode and 15-20 kt of 0-1km shear. The severe threat
will likely extend beyond the 01z expiration of WW634. A new watch
will likely replace southern parts of the watch to cover the severe
risk into early tonight.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 08/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_fVf1nes3wCTojWKmp-4wjSipnn5A7VKDW9w_FrOVZrPI0T0YCFp9fbcuuXypDinm04lBlL0g=
20Qf3BneEZQbQy7F2U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   40337922 40347848 40297819 40107810 39757825 39547854
            39377965 39288033 39128131 39228193 39508194 39678183
            39998149 40108090 40287989 40337922=20


=3D =3D =3D
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