Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1973
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 22:59:16

ACUS11 KWNS 122259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122258=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-130030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of the western and central Carolinas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 635...

Valid 122258Z - 130030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 635
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing linear cluster of strong to severe storms may
continue to pose a risk for a few damaging gusts this evening.
Confidence on the eastern extent of the severe risk is low.

DISCUSSION...As of 2245 UTC, a linear cluster of strong to severe
storms was ongoing across WW635 in western NC/SC. Currently, these
storms are ongoing within moderate buoyancy, (1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE)  with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Vertical
shear is weak with area VADs showing generally less than 25 kt.
Storms have shown a slow weakening trend with warming IR cloud tops
and weaker reflectively cores, especially in western NC. This
general trend is expected to continue as storms encounter a more
stable air mass farther east. However, a few cores along and south
of the NC/SC border have remained strong, and may continue to pose
an isolated damaging wind risk as they track southeastward over the
next couple of hours. The eastern extent of any severe risk is
uncertain with the lack of broader synoptic support, but a few
damaging gusts will remain possible into parts of west-central SC
this evening. the severe risk should quickly wane after dark as more
stable conditions limit the potential for strong updrafts.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 08/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8935AjgXEMAZwrMFxUa_Z-A5Ts0mlOffV_cQXDKn1l2vSLSjBgVSJJG8Abo9ZP1Y9WLfXS-Hi=
DDJV7tph9dwiGXim5Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   36648142 36658115 36548093 36068078 34828073 34168084
            33648123 33548172 33558189 33688231 33978269 34288289
            34978232 35618197 36418162 36648142=20


=3D =3D =3D
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