Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 22:41:13

AWUS01 KWNH 122241
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-130400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0914
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
639 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeast PA...southern NY...northern
NJ...western CT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122238Z - 130400Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms capable of 1-2"/hr rainfall
rates may lead to localized totals 3-4" through the evening hours.
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Scattered convection is progressing eastward across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and has increasingly
been orienting in a west-to-east training configuration late this
afternoon (within a moderately unstable and anomolously moist
enviornment). The parameter space consists of SB CAPE of 1500-2000
J/kg, PWATs of 1.4-1.6" (near the 75th percentile, per OKX
sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts. This
enviornment should continue to support mixed-mode convection with
supercell and multi-cell clusters, and the west-to-east training
(due to 850-300 mb mean flow from the due west) will likely allow
for localized totals of 3-4" (exceeding 3-hr FFG for the bulk of
the region). In addition, the antecednet conditions are relatively
wet (near the 70th percentile, per NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40 cm soil
moisture) with USGS streamflows already above normal or much above
normal for portions of the region. Isolated to scattered instances
of flash flooding are considered possible.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6aoQE0DwTOOr863fZzO30UIpgnEYwMKULFt2uL1dfPD0WDYznK15BAokISE70A4v5QbB=
gsJiz2c5KFQpjRwwkiRFprw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42237424 42017312 41307306 40857397 40717568=20
            41277646 41887669 42197624=20

=3D =3D =3D
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