Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1972
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 22:19:46

ACUS11 KWNS 122219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122219=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-122315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...southwestern Kansas...the Oklahoma and northern
Texas Panhandle vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636...

Valid 122219Z - 122315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636
continues.

SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of thunderstorms may continue to
slowly organize and become accompanied by increasing potential to
produce strong to severe wind gusts across and northeast of the
Liberal KS vicinity through 7-9 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Strongest convection has gradually consolidated near
the western Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, perhaps aided by forcing
for ascent within a zone of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, downstream of a weak upper impulse turning northeastward
across the southern Rockies.  Modest easterly to northeasterly near
surface inflow of moist air characterized by mixed-layer CAPE on the
order of 2000+ J/kg may maintain vigorous convective development
during the next few hours, and it appears possible that an MCV may
gradually form as activity propagates northeastward.  As it does,
strengthening rear inflow to its south through southeast may
gradually be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to
severe surface gusts by early evening.

...Kerr.. 08/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Apl6Qym25zUEGtOLCdPbjyw0aCHqYaO231zjSlYakehUi3L6PCY8S1q01g4E9HT566IN-zDT=
HAU6BgEsnFKuKG2B-s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   36920195 37490234 37850038 36959951 36310003 36140169
            36920195=20


=3D =3D =3D
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